The great Hitchens railed against the “mad mullahs” and warned of the consequences of the Iranian Government getting ahold of weapons of mass destruction. Since I am not a great fan of war, it is probably a good thing that a deal with Iran was reached over their nuclear programme, principally, them not developing nuclear weapons for the foreseeable future.
As a part of this deal, the sanctions that were in place against Iran have been lifted. This of course has been a good thing for for us, and the Iranians too. So a new paper from the World Bank says;”Iran benefits the most, with average per capita welfare gains ranging from close to 3 percent… to 6.5%” The crucial point here being the “…”
Of course these benefits for Iran are dependent on them not being stupid, in both senses; don’t betray the treaty, and don’t go against the economic sense. Sensible economic reforms, enabling a “strong supply response” would include lower marginal tax rates and further capital investment, and will help the Iranians get the economic benefits that the deal allows.
This could be great for Iran if they are able to export oil to the western world, which they now can, and even better with a high oil price. However, currently we don’t have a high oil price, and therefore it is the western world that benefits doubly; we don’t have to worry about a nuclear armed Iran, and we are enjoying cheaper and more plentiful oil.
So, everyone wins right? Well, yes. Principally because of the “…” (do read the paper) which is really the conditions we find ourselves in. In this often maddening world, this is something to be celebrated.